The Valuation of AI Companies: Is the Future Worth Buying? Anthropic's Journey Toward $200 Billion in Revenue

AI Summary

Anthropic is preparing for a landmark IPO based on a 2028 revenue outlook of $190–200 billion, far exceeding its current figures.

Imagine you are looking to acquire a promising company. However, this company is not currently making a significant profit. In fact, it is pouring massive amounts of money into developing artificial intelligence (AI) and maintaining the servers needed to process vast amounts of data. But the company tells you: “It’s like this now, but in two years, we will generate revenue more than four times what we have today.” Would you trust this future and invest a large sum?

Recently, the AI company Anthropic has faced exactly this situation. Anthropic is preparing for one of the largest initial public offerings (IPOs) in history, and it is said that the success of this IPO hinges on a very unique future revenue figure. Source 9

Why is this important?

This event is a symbolic case showing how individual investors and corporations view the “future of AI.” Anthropic is currently investing massive funds into securing computing power, training models, and gathering the world’s best talent. Source 8 Because of this structure, “how much can they grow in the future” has become the most important metric for determining a company’s valuation to investors, rather than current profit.

If Anthropic fails to achieve its targeted revenue, it could be a signal that investment sentiment toward the entire AI industry is freezing, going beyond the struggles of a single company. Conversely, if this IPO succeeds, it will be a decisive turning point where AI technology is finally recognized as a “money-making machine” that creates stable and sustainable profits. Source 13

Understanding Simply: Bringing the Future to the Present

Shall we use an analogy to understand how Anthropic’s corporate value is evaluated? It is like growing a “very promising seed.”

Right now, the tree is small (annual revenue of approximately $47 billion), and it requires endless water and fertilizer (computing costs, labor costs) to grow. Source 2 However, investors believe that by around 2028, this tree will grow into a massive one (annual revenue of $190–200 billion) that covers the entire forest, and they are willing to pay for that future value at today’s price. Source 10

Experts call this a ‘Forward Multiple.’ This is a financial technique that calculates a company’s current value based on expected future revenue. It is similar to the method used when innovative companies like SpaceX or Palantir went public in the past. In other words, they are evaluating the company not by its current performance today, but by pulling the massive future results it will produce in a few years into the present. Source 10, Source 16

How far along are they?

Currently, Anthropic’s revenue run rate is at approximately $47 billion per year. Source 10 However, they have set an ambitious goal to grow this to the $190–200 billion scale by 2028—more than a fourfold increase. Source 14 Wall Street is keeping a close watch on whether they can push their corporate valuation up to approximately $2 trillion. Source 14

An interesting aspect is the fierce competition in the AI industry. According to analysts, the probability of Anthropic successfully completing its IPO before its rival OpenAI is 68%. Source 7 Investors are expecting that Anthropic can generate profit through ‘Enterprise revenue lock’—a phenomenon where corporate clients are locked into a specific technology platform, leading to continuous revenue. Source 6

Future Challenges

For the massive revenue goal Anthropic has proposed to become reality, there is a condition that must be met: ‘Cost efficiency.’ While the structure currently spends more on costs than it makes in revenue, as the company grows and technology becomes more sophisticated, it must prove that revenue increases much faster than infrastructure costs—a concept known as ‘economies of scale.’ Source 8, Source 11

If Anthropic secures large-scale funding through this IPO and grows its revenue as promised, it will be an event that proves AI technology has become an essential driver of the industry, moving beyond a curious toy. The point to watch going forward is whether this massive revenue forecast will end as mere market number-crunching, or become a realistic indicator that supports substantial service growth.

MindTickleBytes’ AI Reporter Perspective

Anthropic’s announcement of $200 billion in revenue demonstrates just how high market expectations are. For AI companies, technical prowess is now a baseline. Proving exactly how that technology will fatten a company’s bank account will be the new survival challenge of the upcoming ‘AI IPO era.’

References

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Test Your Understanding

Q1. What is Anthropic's revenue goal for 2028 used to justify its corporate valuation?

Approximately $47 billion
Approximately $100 billion
Approximately $190–200 billion

Anthropic has set an ambitious plan to expand its revenue from its current level of around $47 billion to $190–200 billion by 2028.

Q2. Which method do AI companies primarily use to receive high valuations during an IPO?

Evaluation based on current net profit
Evaluation using forward multiples based on future revenue forecasts
Asset valuation

AI companies that are not yet profitable use the 'forward multiple' method, which reflects potential future revenue growth, similar to companies like SpaceX or Palantir.

Q3. What is the core logic underlying Anthropic's revenue forecast?

The belief that revenue will grow faster than costs
Realizing explosive short-term net profit
Maximizing profits through labor cost reductions

Investors expect 'economies of scale,' where revenue grows faster than computing costs as the company scales.