As prolonged war in the Middle East leads to high exchange rates and rising oil prices, coupled with extreme weather events like heatwaves and heavy rains, the prices of everyday groceries such as spinach and mackerel are skyrocketing unprecedentedly.
“Afraid to Go to the Supermarket” The Secret Behind the Triple Threat Hitting Our Dining Tables
Imagine this: On a weekend evening, you drop by the neighborhood supermarket after a long time to grab a mackerel to pan-fry and serve with a bubbling doenjang jjigae (soybean paste stew) for your family. However, the moment you pick up a bunch of spinach in the vegetable section and check the price tag, you flinch and pull your hand back in surprise. Wondering, “Is this price for real? Did I misread an extra zero?”, you look around at the nearby cabbages and garlic, only to find a similar situation. Fresh foods are so expensive that you reluctantly head over to the frozen food section, hoping it might be a bit cheaper. But even frozen foods, once the epitome of “cost-effectiveness,” have seen their prices jump significantly compared to the past. In the end, you’ve only put a few items in your shopping basket, but the total on the receipt you receive at the checkout counter feels much longer and heavier than before.
Haven’t you experienced this often recently? It’s not your imagination. Right now, a glaring red “warning light” is flashing over the cost of groceries in South Korea like never before. From the bread we eat every day to fish, vegetables, and meat, there isn’t a single thing that isn’t going up in price. Why on earth is such a terrifying thing happening?
Why Is This Important?
When the prices of the food and drinks we consume daily rise, it naturally hits household living expenses hard. But the bigger problem is that the current situation is not just a temporary price fluctuation ahead of a holiday or the year-end, but a fundamental and structural threat.
South Korea’s self-sufficiency rate for grains (the proportion of domestic production out of domestic consumption), which are essential ingredients on our dining tables, is only around 20%[Source 1] ‘Grain Self-Sufficiency 20%’ South Korea, Will Food Prices Jump Further Due to High Exchange Rates? - Financial News. Simply put, this means the flour used to make 8 out of 10 breads we eat must be bought from abroad. We are relying on imports for almost all food ingredients except rice.
Therefore, even if a war breaks out in the Middle East on the other side of the globe or the flow of the global economy fluctuates even slightly, those shockwaves cross the Pacific and directly change the price tag on a croissant at our local bakery. Massive global diplomatic or economic issues are no longer just other people’s stories in the news; they have become the most important factor determining the state of our wallets for everyday expenditures.
Easy to Understand: The Two Culprits Raising Food Prices
There are two main culprits currently making our shopping baskets lighter and our receipt totals jump. They are the external enemy called the “global economy” and the unpredictable enemy called “climate change.”
First, the Global Domino Phenomenon (High Exchange Rates and High Oil Prices)
To understand this situation, it’s easy to think of when we directly purchase items from overseas internet shopping malls (overseas direct purchase). When buying goods from abroad, we must consider the original “price of the item,” the “shipping fee,” and the “exchange rate (the ratio at which different countries’ currencies are exchanged)” to pay in dollars. The problem is that all three of these have gone up at the same time right now.
As the war in the Middle East dragged on, an emergency struck the pipelines supplying oil to the world, ultimately causing international oil prices to exceed $110 per barrel and sending shipping costs—fuel prices—soaring[Source 2] [Inflation Air Raid from the Middle East ②] Prices Locked and Costs Soaring… ‘Warning Lights’ for the Food Industry - Financial News. On top of this, the value of the Korean Won fell, bringing about an “era of high exchange rates” where this year’s exchange rate lingers in the 1,400 won per dollar range[Source 6] High Exchange Rates Compound Climate Impacts… Backbreaking Grocery Inflation.
To use an analogy, in the past, when importing $1 worth of flour, you only had to pay 1,100 won, but now you have to pay 1,400 won. Furthermore, because oil prices have risen, the transportation cost of hauling it by truck from the import port to the supermarket has also become much more expensive. Even to make the same single loaf of bread, the basic material costs that companies must bear have become immensely expensive. As this rise in international prices and the weak won intertwined, the “producer price index (the price of goods shipped to the market by producers),” which is the cost incurred by companies when making goods, skyrocketed by the largest margin in 28 years[Source 11] Producer Prices Rise by Largest Margin in 28 Years… ‘Inflation Warning Light’ Due to Oil Price Shock By EBN.
| This is a structure where the shock of oil prices and exchange rates pushes up import prices, and this is completely rolling over as pressure on the rising prices of the food we eat[Source 1] ‘Grain Self-Sufficiency 20%’ South Korea, Will Food Prices Jump Further Due to High Exchange Rates? - Financial News[[Source 3] [Import Price Warning Light] Import Shock Behind Suppressed Inflation… Anxiety Grows for the Second Half | Aju Business Daily](https://www.ajunews.com/view/20260510144833070). This is not just a problem for our country alone. Even in the United States, the center of the global economy, the surge in oil prices is sending global shockwaves to the extent that massive hits are expected across aviation, agriculture, and retail sectors[Source 8] Skyrocketing Oil Prices Trigger US Inflation ‘Warning Lights’… Aviation, Farmers, Retail Hit One After Another - Maeil Business Newspaper. |
Second, Farms Turned into Giant Saunas (Extreme Climate)
You might think, “No matter how expensive it is to buy from abroad, wouldn’t it be nice if the vegetables grown in our country were cheap?” However, the reality is exactly the opposite. This is because a massive bomb called “abnormal climate” has dropped on our fields and seas.
| Summer is originally a season with high demand for fresh food. However, starting in early July, an early heatwave and unprecedented temperature changes arrived, and to make matters worse, record-breaking heavy rains repeated[Source 5] The Predicted ‘Extreme Climate’ Pushed Up ‘Food Prices’[Source 7] Dining Tables Hit Hard by Climate Change… Agricultural Prices ‘Jump’ Amid Heatwaves and Heavy Rains. To use an analogy, the fields where crops are supposed to grow have turned into boiling steam saunas doused in hot water. As harvests (the condition of growing crops) became extremely poor and large-scale die-offs occurred like annual events, the very supply of agricultural and marine products to be sold in the market was abruptly cut off[[Source 4] Spinach Up 172% Due to Heatwaves and Heavy Rains… ‘National Fish’ Mackerel Also Rises | Yonhap News](https://www.yna.co.kr/amp/view/MYH20250821024300038)[Source 5] The Predicted ‘Extreme Climate’ Pushed Up ‘Food Prices’. The marine ecosystem is no exception to this; seawater temperatures rose abnormally, creating a harsh environment where fish species cannot breathe and live properly[[Source 4] Spinach Up 172% Due to Heatwaves and Heavy Rains… ‘National Fish’ Mackerel Also Rises | Yonhap News](https://www.yna.co.kr/amp/view/MYH20250821024300038). |
An analysis by the Bank of Korea shows the destructive power of this climate change in terrifying numbers. They state that even if the temperature temporarily rises by just 1 degree Celsius, agricultural prices rise by 0.4~0.5 percentage points, and this pushes up the overall consumer price index (an index indicating the price changes of goods and services we purchase in our daily lives) by 0.07 percentage points[Source 16] Startled by High Oil and Agricultural Prices… ‘Inflation Warning Lights’ Ahead of the Holidays.
| The perceived inflation consumers feel at supermarkets is far more horrifying than the numbers. Spinach prices, which took a direct hit from the heatwaves and heavy rains, soared by a whopping 172%, and cabbage prices also skyrocketed by more than double[[Source 4] Spinach Up 172% Due to Heatwaves and Heavy Rains… ‘National Fish’ Mackerel Also Rises | Yonhap News](https://www.yna.co.kr/amp/view/MYH20250821024300038)[Source 7] Dining Tables Hit Hard by Climate Change… Agricultural Prices ‘Jump’ Amid Heatwaves and Heavy Rains. Watermelons, the representative summer fruit, also rose by over 20% compared to last year, and tangerine prices have surged by 2.5 times over the past five years, making it now “scary” to readily open one’s wallet in the fruit aisle[Source 6] High Exchange Rates Compound Climate Impacts… Backbreaking Grocery Inflation[Source 7] Dining Tables Hit Hard by Climate Change… Agricultural Prices ‘Jump’ Amid Heatwaves and Heavy Rains. |
The situation is the same for other basic items on our dining tables. Compared to the previous year, garlic rose by 12%, onions by 6.2%, and bread by 5.8%, while the “national fish” mackerel, hit by rising water temperatures, also went up by 10.3%, and beef rose by 4.7%[Source 6] High Exchange Rates Compound Climate Impacts… Backbreaking Grocery Inflation. It’s a pitiful sight as even frozen foods, frequently sought by people trying to cut down on eating out and have cost-effective meals at home, rose by 5.5%, breaching the final line of defense for living expenses[Source 6] High Exchange Rates Compound Climate Impacts… Backbreaking Grocery Inflation.
Current Situation: Suppressed Inflation, a Precarious Tightrope Walk
| As consumer inflation continued its 2% range growth rate for two consecutive months[Source 7] Dining Tables Hit Hard by Climate Change… Agricultural Prices ‘Jump’ Amid Heatwaves and Heavy Rains, government authorities managing inflation also went on high alert. Currently, the government is trying with all its might to put out the urgent fire in our shopping baskets. To reduce the burden on consumers in the short term, they have pulled out the card of cutting fuel taxes (taxes attached to oil) to lower gas prices, and are precariously suppressing the superficial upward trend in inflation through various price stabilization measures[[Source 3] [Import Price Warning Light] Import Shock Behind Suppressed Inflation… Anxiety Grows for the Second Half | Aju Business Daily](https://www.ajunews.com/view/20260510144833070). Furthermore, to catch the soaring meat prices, they are rushing countermeasures, such as preparing an ‘improvement plan for livestock product distribution (a plan to lower prices by reducing the distribution process)’[Source 6] High Exchange Rates Compound Climate Impacts… Backbreaking Grocery Inflation. |
| Given this situation, the prevailing forecast in the business world is that the top priority of the Lee Jae-myung administration’s economic policy next year, having experienced the side effects of consumption coupon policies in the past, will be ‘curbing inflation’ to protect the peace of ordinary people’s dining tables above anything else[[Source 15] The Butterfly Effect of Consumption Coupons… Following Surprise Growth Are Fiscal and Inflation ‘Warning Lights’ | Seoul Shinmun](https://www.seoul.co.kr/news/economy/2025/12/05/20251205002004). |
What Will Happen Next?: The Dominoes Are Not Over Yet
So, is there any hope that our shopping baskets will become even a little lighter for the time being? Unfortunately, the immediate outlook is not very bright.
| Experts warn that behind the prices currently barely suppressed by the government’s short-term measures, an ‘import cost shock’, which has been building up like a dam, is waiting like a massive wave. Because of this, it is expected that concerns about consumer price instability will grow rather than subside as we head into the second half of this year[[Source 3] [Import Price Warning Light] Import Shock Behind Suppressed Inflation… Anxiety Grows for the Second Half | Aju Business Daily](https://www.ajunews.com/view/20260510144833070). |
| What is even more terrifying is that the second act of the ‘global domino effect’ could begin in earnest. If the prolonged war in the Middle East continues to cause imported grain prices to rise, it won’t just end with the prices of bread or instant noodles going up. This is because the grains we import are also the main ingredients of ‘feed’ fed to the cows, pigs, and chickens we eat. In other words, if grain prices rise, feed prices rise, and if feed prices rise, it will ultimately lead to a chain reaction of soaring prices not just for agricultural products, but also for livestock products like meat and dairy. This is why there are growing concerns that it will inevitably overstimulate overall food prices even more severely[Source 1] ‘Grain Self-Sufficiency 20%’ South Korea, Will Food Prices Jump Further Due to High Exchange Rates? - Financial News[[Source 14] Grain Prices Wiggle Due to Prolonged War in Iran… Grocery Inflation ‘Warning Light’ | YTN Science](https://science.ytn.co.kr/program/view.php?mcd=0082&key=202605061107214752). |
MindTickleBytes AI’s Perspective
It’s terrifying to realize once again that complex global diplomatic issues and a massive climate crisis ultimately translate directly to the state of our wallets. A war on the other side of the globe and unseen climate changes have met on our dining tables to create a “perfect storm.” Macroeconomic indicators like exchange rates and international oil prices are no longer unfamiliar terms seen only in economic news, but have become the most realistic constraints determining what we will eat for dinner tonight.
For the time being, it might be difficult to avoid deep sighs in front of supermarket displays. However, if we accurately understand the causes of inflation, instead of blindly closing our wallets, wouldn’t we be able to make slightly wiser consumption plans, such as utilizing seasonal ingredients or finding alternative foods? Now more than ever, it is a crucial time to come up with long-term and fundamental measures to protect our dining tables.
References
- [Source 1] ‘Grain Self-Sufficiency 20%’ South Korea, Will Food Prices Jump Further Due to High Exchange Rates? - Financial News
- [Source 2] [Inflation Air Raid from the Middle East ②] Prices Locked and Costs Soaring… ‘Warning Lights’ for the Food Industry - Financial News
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[[Source 3] [Import Price Warning Light] Import Shock Behind Suppressed Inflation… Anxiety Grows for the Second Half Aju Business Daily](https://www.ajunews.com/view/20260510144833070) -
[[Source 4] Spinach Up 172% Due to Heatwaves and Heavy Rains… ‘National Fish’ Mackerel Also Rises Yonhap News](https://www.yna.co.kr/amp/view/MYH20250821024300038) - [Source 5] The Predicted ‘Extreme Climate’ Pushed Up ‘Food Prices’
- [Source 6] High Exchange Rates Compound Climate Impacts… Backbreaking Grocery Inflation
- [Source 7] Dining Tables Hit Hard by Climate Change… Agricultural Prices ‘Jump’ Amid Heatwaves and Heavy Rains
- [Source 8] Skyrocketing Oil Prices Trigger US Inflation ‘Warning Lights’… Aviation, Farmers, Retail Hit One After Another - Maeil Business Newspaper
- [Source 11] Producer Prices Rise by Largest Margin in 28 Years… ‘Inflation Warning Light’ Due to Oil Price Shock By EBN
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[[Source 14] Grain Prices Wiggle Due to Prolonged War in Iran… Grocery Inflation ‘Warning Light’ YTN Science](https://science.ytn.co.kr/program/view.php?mcd=0082&key=202605061107214752) -
[[Source 15] The Butterfly Effect of Consumption Coupons… Following Surprise Growth Are Fiscal and Inflation ‘Warning Lights’ Seoul Shinmun](https://www.seoul.co.kr/news/economy/2025/12/05/20251205002004) - [Source 16] Startled by High Oil and Agricultural Prices… ‘Inflation Warning Lights’ Ahead of the Holidays
- About 20%
- About 50%
- About 80%
- Onion
- Spinach
- Garlic
- Prolonged war in the Middle East
- Rising global oil prices
- Achieving 100% grain self-sufficiency