AI Giant Anthropic: Is a $2 Trillion Valuation an 'Unprecedented Test of Investor Gullibility'?

Imagine you pre-ordered an album from a popular singer you’ve been following, paying a large sum, only to find out later that the singer’s actual vocal ability is far lower than you expected. How would you feel?

A similar debate is currently raging in the Wall Street financial community. It involves Anthropic, an AI industry giant set to list in November. Experts are raising sharp questions about whether the massive flow of money behind the AI services we use every day actually aligns with the real value of the company, or if it is based on vague expectations.

Why is this important?

Anthropic is currently one of the most talked-about companies in the AI industry. However, ahead of its initial public offering (IPO), where it will offer shares to the public for the first time, financial research firm New Constructs has issued a very strong warning.

They evaluated that this Anthropic IPO will be an “unprecedented test of investor gullibility” Source 16. While it may look like a simple “opportunity to buy shares in a famous AI company” to the average investor, it implies that a dangerous situation is hidden underneath, where the company’s actual earning power and market expectations are extremely disconnected.

Understanding it simply

Let’s use a very simple analogy. Imagine a shop owner running a ‘supermarket.’ The shop is currently generating about 10 billion won in annual revenue. However, the owner claims their shop is worth 200 billion won and encourages people to buy shares.

Then, an expert who analyzes shops appears and says, “Looking at the shop’s sales growth, a reasonable value for this shop right now is about 15 billion won.”

The current situation between Anthropic and the market is similar.

• What Anthropic wants: They want to be valued at $2 trillion (over 2,700 trillion won) on the first day of listing Source 5, Source 18.
• Expert evaluation: New Constructs sees the reasonable value of this company at just $150 billion Source 7, Source 15.

Experts analyze that for Anthropic to justify a massive $2 trillion price tag, it would have to demonstrate phenomenal and explosive growth that is almost impossible to maintain given current circumstances Source 2.

Current status

Of course, Anthropic is not a company built solely on expectations. It is actually recording amazing growth.

• As of the end of July 2026, its annual revenue run rate (a figure converting current sales into a 1-year unit) was $65 billion, a sevenfold increase from the previous year Source 6.
• It is expected to reach $100 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2026, and the recently announced third-quarter revenue alone reached $16.8 billion Source 6, Source 10.

These figures clearly show how quickly Anthropic is establishing itself in the AI industry. However, research firms still question whether this sales growth can reasonably justify the astronomical valuation of $2 trillion Source 3, Source 5.

Also, an interesting point is the stance of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Paradoxically, he is a person who has consistently spoken out about the social risks that AI technology will bring, arguing that the speed of AI development should be carefully controlled Source 11. The fact that a company led by a CEO who emphasizes the dangers of technology is trying to receive the most aggressive and highest valuation in the market is an interesting point for investors to consider.

What will happen next?

It is clear that Anthropic’s IPO, scheduled for November, will be one of the biggest events in the financial market this year Source 10. Will investors ignore the cold warnings of experts and bet on Anthropic’s future potential? Or will they take a step back and show a cautious attitude to avoid the evaluation of being “gullible investors”?

The results of this IPO will go beyond the listing of a single company and serve as a very important test to determine whether the current AI craze is sound growth based on practical corporate value, or if it is merely a temporary bubble.

MindTickleBytes AI Reporter Perspective

No one can deny the fact that the era of AI has arrived. However, there is always a gap between the ‘technical value’ a company actually creates and the ‘financial value’ the market assigns to it. The Anthropic IPO case clearly shows why we must pay close attention to not just how technology changes our lives, but also how capital interprets and consumes that technology.

References

1. [Source 2] “Unprecedented Test Of Investor Gullibility”: Analyst Says Anthropic … (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/unprecedented-test-investor-gullibility-analyst-113001796.html)
2. [Source 3] Anthropic will be ‘most ridiculous IPO’ of year, analyst says (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/anthropic-will-be-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-year-analyst-says.html)
3. [Source 4] Anthropic IPO Could Be 2026’s ‘Most Ridiculous’ Offering as Analyst … (https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/anthropic-ipo-could-2026-most-100458570.html)
4. [Source 5] ‘Most Ridiculous IPO of 2026’ - A research firm values Anthropic 92% … (https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/a-wall-street-firm-called-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-warns-wall-street-investors-about-impending-risks-20007136.htm)
5. [Source 6] Research Firm Calls Anthropic’s IPO ‘Unprecedented Test… (https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-s-ipo-unprecedented-test-of-investor-gullibity–drtgdbmnr)
6. [Source 7] Anthropic IPO could be 2026’s most ridiculous offering as … - MSN (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/anthropic-ipo-could-be-2026-s-most-ridiculous-offering-as-analyst-values-ai-firm-at-just-150-billion-unprecedented-test-of-investor-gullibility/ar-AA2dPmT2)
7. [Source 10] Anthropic’s Q3 revenue is said to hit $16.8 billion ahead of IPO (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/anthropics-third-quarter-revenue-hits-16point8-billion-ipo.html)
8. [Source 11] AI giant Anthropic woos potential investors ahead of stock market… (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqzjx448vxkgo)
9. [Source 15] Anthropic IPO Could Be 2026’s ‘Most Ridiculous’ Offering as … (https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/anthropic-ipo-could-2026-most-100458570.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall)
10. [Source 16] “Unprecedented Test Of Investor Gullibility”: Analyst Says … (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/unprecedented-test-investor-gullibility-analyst-113001796.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall)
11. [Source 18] Analyst Calls Anthropic’s 2026 IPO ‘Most Absurd’ Amid … (https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/analyst-calls-anthropic-s-2026-ipo-most-absurd-amid-valuation-dispute)