Is OpenAI Missing $20 Billion in Revenue? Is Its Growth Truly in Trouble?

Recently, interesting news has shaken the AI industry. Different stories are circulating regarding the revenue report card of OpenAI, the creator of the AI services we use every day. On one side, reports claim, “Revenue is $20 billion short of expectations,” while on the other, it is said, “It is actually growing steeply and is on the verge of exceeding $40 billion.”

Which story is correct? Let’s break down this complex situation where numbers are dancing.

Why It Matters

To the average consumer, a figure like “annual revenue” might feel a bit distant. However, this number is a key indicator that determines the future of the AI services you use.

Because AI must learn massive amounts of data and perform complex calculations, maintaining these services costs astronomical sums. If revenue does not meet expectations, service fees could rise or feature updates could be delayed. Conversely, if revenue remains consistently strong, we can continue to enjoy smarter and more convenient AI assistants for free or at a low cost. In short, this revenue figure is a barometer for how quickly the AI in our hands will evolve.

The Explainer

First, we need to understand a concept: Annualised Revenue. Simply put, it is a prediction calculated by asking, “If we keep earning money at this pace for a year, what will the total be?”

Companies usually share targets with the market to demonstrate future growth potential. However, according to a recent report by the Financial Times, documents shared with investors indicated that OpenAI’s revenue was approximately $20 billion (about 27 trillion KRW) lower than the expectations it had signaled to the market in the past (Source: ZeroHedge).

Let’s use a very simple analogy. Imagine a promising pizza shop that boasts, “We will earn 100 million KRW next year!” but when business actually starts, it looks like they will earn 20 million KRW less than that. They aren’t failing, but the market was surprised because expectations were so high.

But that’s not the end of the story. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar officially confirmed that the actual annualised revenue for 2025 has already surpassed $20 billion (Source: LinkedIn, Source: BusinessWorld). This is a staggering figure, more than triple the $6 billion scale of 2024 a year earlier (Source: BusinessWorld).

Where We Stand

Summarizing the situation, OpenAI’s current scorecard can be described as, “It may fall slightly short of expectations, but growth itself is incredibly fast.”

1. Explosive Growth: OpenAI’s revenue started at $2 billion in 2023, hit $13 billion as of August 2025, and broke through $20 billion by the end of the year, showing an annual growth rate of 3.2x (Source: Epoch AI).
2. Cost Issues: However, they spend as much as they earn. Under contract, OpenAI is required to pay 20% of its total revenue to its partner Microsoft through 2032, making the cost burden structurally significant (Source: DEV Community).
3. Correlation: According to the CFO, this revenue growth is precisely aligned with the company’s computing capacity (the power to process data) expanding threefold (Source: BusinessWorld).

What’s Next

The latest reports mention the possibility of OpenAI now exceeding $40 billion (Source: Yahoo Finance, Source: TheLec). This figure is double the revenue recorded at the end of 2025. If this forecast becomes reality, the past concerns about “disappointing revenue” will be proven to be nothing more than groundless worry. Moving forward, we must watch how efficiently OpenAI controls its massive costs and whether it safely reaches this $40 billion milestone.

AI’s Take

MindTickleBytes AI Reporter’s Take: The reason reports of a $20 billion shortfall coexist with those pointing toward $40 billion in revenue is that AI industry projections are inherently volatile. What matters most right now is not the “revenue scale” visible on the surface, but the validation of “cost efficiency”—how intelligently the company uses its computing resources to generate profit.

References

1. [Nasdaq Tumbles After FT Reports OpenAI Revenues Disappointing

   ZeroHedge](https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-tumbles-after-ft-reports-openai-revenues-disappointing)

2. [Anthropic vs OpenAI: The Revenue Race That’s Reshaping AI in 2026

   DEV Community](https://dev.to/sheraz046/anthropic-vs-openai-the-revenue-race-thats-reshaping-ai-in-2026-4pi9)

3. [OpenAI CFO says annualized revenue crosses $20 billion in 2025

   LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/evgeny-vigderovich-5ba6b8b6_openai-cfo-says-annualized-revenue-crosses-activity-7419299215811649537-zzyO)

4. [What Do $20B Revenue And $20B Infra Signal?

   DeepAI VC](https://www.deepai.vc/signals/what-do-20b-revenue-and-20b-infra-signal)

5. [OpenAI’s revenue has been growing 3x a year since 2024

   Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-revenue)

6. [OpenAI annualized revenue tops $40 billion ahead of IPO

   Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/openai-annualized-revenue-tops-40-111122841.html)

7. [OpenAI Annualized Revenue Run Rate Estimated Above $40 Billion

   TheLec](https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=13085)

8. [OpenAI Annualised Revenue Tops $20 Bn In 2025 As Computing Capacity Triples

   BusinessWorld](https://www.businessworld.in/article/openai-annualised-revenue-tops-20-bn-in-2025-as-computing-capacity-triples-589871)